TRENDS IN CANCER DETECTION AND MORTALITY IN THE ABAY REGION DURING AND AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Abstract

Background. Malignant neoplasms remain a leading cause of mortality worldwide, and early detection plays a critical role in patient outcomes. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted oncology services, reducing detection rates and increasing the proportion of late-stage diagnoses. Regions with a history of environmental burden, such as the Abay Region in Kazakhstan, are particularly vulnerable. Given the limited availability of regional data in Central Asia, this study aimed to evaluate changes in the structure, detection, and cancer mortality in the Abay Region between 2020 and 2024 under the influence of the pandemic. Materials and Methods. Cancer data from the Abay Region (2020-2024) were analyzed using official statistics. The dataset included cancer incidence, staging, and mortality. Data were structured in long-table format and analyzed using Python (pandas, matplotlib, scipy.stats). Annual dynamics were assessed, with comparisons made between pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods. The proportion of early- and late-stage diagnoses was also calculated. Statistical significance was assessed using the independent samples t-test at p < 0.05. Results. Between 2020 and 2024, 7,732 new cancer cases and 3,090 cancer-related deaths were recorded in the Abay Region. Following the end of the active phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of new cases increased by approximately 26%, advanced-stage diagnoses by 22%, and mortality by 5%. The standardized cancer incidence rate rose from 208.9 to 263.8 per 100,000 population. The share of early-stage detection increased from 20.7% to 29.6%. However, differences in early detection and mortality between pre- and post-pandemic periods did not reach statistical significance. These results underscore the need for continued cancer monitoring and more in-depth research. Conclusions. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a rise in cancer incidence and a moderate increase in mortality in the Abay Region. An improvement in early detection suggests partial recovery of screening services. The findings highlight the need to strengthen oncology system resilience in times of crisis.