SUICIDE RATE FORECASTING IN THE CITIES OF UST-KAMENOGORSK, SEMEY, AND PAVLODAR REGION USING A MATHEMATICAL MODEL

Abstract

Introduction. Suicides are a serious public health problem worldwide. Every year, 726,000 people die from suicide, and many more attempt suicide. Each suicide is a tragedy affecting families, communities, and entire countries, with long-term consequences for the bereaved. Objective: Calculate the suicide forecast in the cities of Ust-Kamenogorsk, Semey, and Pavlodar region using a mathematical model. Materials and Methods: Cohort retrospective study. Descriptive statistics were used to present absolute and relative indicators. The Student's t-test was used to compare means between two groups with normal distribution. The Pearson chisquare test was used to compare means between two categorical variables. Data from forensic examinations in UstKamenogorsk, Semey, and Pavlodar region were collected for the period from 2013 to 2022, including 3657 cases of suicide. Variables: age, gender, place of residence. Results. Among the regions, Pavlodar region occupies the leading position in completed suicides (45.6%), followed by Ust-Kamenogorsk (30.8%), and the lowest number of completed suicides is registered in the city of Semey (23.6%). Depending on gender, a greater number of completed suicides is noted among the male population (84.5%). The model describes the data as follows: the actual suicide rate for 2022 was 20.8 cases per 100,000 people, predicted – 21.2 cases per 100,000 people; for 2023 – 20.6 cases per 100,000 people, predicted – 21.1 cases per 100,000 people. Based on our model, a decrease in the suicide rate is forecasted from 20.9 cases per 100,000 people to 20.4 cases per 100,000 people from 2024 to 2028. Conclusions. n the studied regions, a high level of suicides persists. Based on our model, a decrease in the suicide rate is projected from 20.9 cases per 100,000 people to 20.4 cases per 100,000 people from 2024 to 2028.